多倫多【黃嵐地產榜】®

  说到写字楼商业地产，其种类和参与者繁多，必须有结构化思维和分析方法，Daisy黄岚总结了如下分析结构及参与者维度。每年都会结合自身丰富的商业地产成交经验和大牌商业地产巨头如世邦魏理仕等的研究报告，截取加拿大和多伦多办公室切面一瞥其现状和关键指标。 任何资金都是逐利的，而资本化率这一指标是指示某项商业地产价值及其回报的最关键指标，可以反映出一段时间内某类资产的估值变化，收入情况，和风险趋势。风险越高的资产资本化率越高，国债属于无风险资产，因此国债利率也就是国债资本化率相对于其他资产都是最低的。如果我们细看加拿大各商业地产资本化率的走势，可以看出各类资产通常的风险排序从低到高分别是多户住宅、厂房、店面、办公室、酒店，而在过去五年中办公室的资本化率上升最大，反映出市场认为办公室资产风险有所增加，因此资产估值下降。 具体分类来看，加拿大写字楼风险由高到低分别是副中心乙级楼、市中心乙级楼、副中心甲级楼、市中心甲级楼，显示大楼级别越高，风险越低。多伦多作为加拿大GDP第一大城市，其各类办公楼的资本化率普遍低于全国平均值0.5到1.5个百分点，显示回报更稳定和安全， 而且与加拿大平均不同，在多伦多写字楼风险由高到低分别是副中心乙级楼、副中心甲级楼、市中心乙级楼、市中心甲级楼，即地段比写字楼级别更抗风险。 再来看各类商业地产的投资额，根据世邦魏理仕数据，2025年第一季度，加拿大办公室投资额则相对于过去3年季度平均值大幅萎缩。 大多伦多地区2025年第一季度办公室投资成交额相对于其他商业地产品种居中，小于厂房、零售店面、开发用地，大于多户住宅和酒店的投资额。 当然贷款机构对各类商业地产还是有倾向和风险偏好的。世邦魏理仕最新调查显示，银行更倾向于增加对单户住宅、零售商业店面、厂房的贷款；维持对高层公寓和酒店的贷款，减少对写字楼和开发用地贷款。这与对各类资产的信贷风险调查相互印证，即当前开发用地和办公室写字楼的资产信贷风险被认为有上升，而店面和厂房则被认为风险较低。 服务业是国家的主要经济支柱，办公室空置率也是服务业兴旺与否的指标。三年以来加拿大和多伦多的办公室空置率都有较大的上升，多伦多办公室的空置率上升幅度高于全国平均，对估值造成明显的压力。 值得注意的是在逆风环境下多伦多市中心金融区的甲级写字楼的空置率明显低于级别相对低或非市中心的写字楼。从中看出大公司大银行随着“回...

  ©Copyright by top real estate agent in Toronto/GTA, senior broker, Daisy Huang, July 2022. In the last episode, we talked about “If the interest rate rises to 20%, what will happen to GTA property price?”. We said that the cooling-off period of the real estate market is the most suitable for “home hunting”. In this episode, Daisy Huang wants to share some snapshots of the Greater Toronto market based on June data, hoping that while we discuss the impact of inflation and interest rate hikes on home prices, we can also bring you more sense of reality, increase the visibility of the GTA marketplace and capture opportunities. The following are 5 snapshots of GTA real estate market by “Daisy Realty List®”. It should be disclaimed that the data is based on a snapshot of one month of June, the ranking will deviate from the annual average ranking. For more detailed and real-time market dynamics, please contact Daisy Huang. Let's first look at the [Snapshot of the average price of single-...

  ©Copyright by top real estate agent in Toronto/GTA, senior broker, Daisy Huang, July 2022. What will happen to Toronto home prices if interest rates rise to 20%? This is the topic of today's episode. As of June 2022, affected by the substantial interest rate hike by the Central Bank of Canada, although the average property price in the Greater Toronto Area is still up 5% year-on-year, the average price has fallen back to the 20-year baseline compared with the previous month. What everyone is most concerned about at the moment is: How will interest rate hikes and the hike expectations affect the trend of property prices in Greater Toronto? Each period has its own era context and uncertainties. I do not intend to predict the future, but we can learn from experience and get some references from history. The time that is most similar to the current inflation environment can be traced back to more than 40 years ago, that is, the late 1970s and 1980s… Take the United States in the pict...